{"id":430,"date":"2021-11-09T16:07:58","date_gmt":"2021-11-09T15:07:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ideehorizon.fr\/?p=430"},"modified":"2021-11-09T16:10:36","modified_gmt":"2021-11-09T15:10:36","slug":"la-france-doit-mettre-a-jour-ses-objectifs-de-reduction-demissions-de-ges-et-la-pente-va-etre-raide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ideehorizon.fr\/index.php\/2021\/11\/09\/la-france-doit-mettre-a-jour-ses-objectifs-de-reduction-demissions-de-ges-et-la-pente-va-etre-raide\/","title":{"rendered":"La France doit mettre \u00e0 jour ses objectifs de r\u00e9duction d\u2019\u00e9missions de GES et la pente va \u00eatre raide"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

La France a institu\u00e9 en 2015 une Strat\u00e9gie Nationale Bas Carbone (SNBC) qui d\u00e9finit des seuils annuels de volume d\u2019\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre \u00e0 ne pas d\u00e9passer. Le pays a r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement d\u00e9pass\u00e9 ces plafonds sur les premi\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, ce qui a motiv\u00e9 la mise \u00e0 jour de la SNBC en 2020 pour hausser les seuils.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e9but 2021, la ministre de l\u2019Environnement, Mme Pompili s\u2019\u00e9tait d’ailleurs r\u00e9joui que nous ayons respect\u00e9 le seuil d\u2019\u00e9missions fix\u00e9 pour 2019, alors que ce seuil avait \u00e9t\u00e9 augment\u00e9 en mars 2020<\/a> (les seuils avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 revus \u00e0 la hausse \u00e0 post\u00e9riori pour la p\u00e9riode 2019-2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une premi\u00e8re estimation officielle des \u00e9missions de 2020 vient d’\u00eatre publi\u00e9e r\u00e9cemment: 396 MtCO2eq, soit environ 9% de diminution par rapport \u00e0 2019. Cela pourrait \u00eatre une bonne nouvelle mais gardons \u00e0 l\u2019esprit que 2020 \u00e9tait \u2018l\u2019ann\u00e9e COVID\u2019.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A noter que comme on pouvait le pressentir, les \u00e9missions sont reparties \u00e0 la hausse en 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour r\u00e9aliser l\u2019ampleur de la diminution d\u2019\u00e9missions que nous devons atteindre, le volume de 396 MtCO2eq correspond au seuil que nous ne devrions pas d\u00e9passer en 2023. Vous lisez bien. En 2023, il faudrait que nous ne d\u00e9passions pas le volume d\u2019\u00e9missions de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2020 au cours de laquelle notre \u00e9conomie a \u00e9t\u00e9 grandement ralentie (-7,9% pour le PIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La SNBC se d\u00e9compose en diff\u00e9rente phases temporelles : 2019-2023, 2024-2028 et 2028-2033 auxquelles sont associ\u00e9s des moyennes d\u2019\u00e9missions attendues. Pour 2019-2023, la moyenne attendue est de 422 MtCO2eq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avec l\u2019ann\u00e9e exceptionnelle qu\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 2020, nous pouvons consid\u00e9rer que l\u2019ordre des seuils fix\u00e9s a \u00e9t\u00e9 redistribu\u00e9. La SNBC indiquait :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020 <\/strong><\/td>2021 <\/strong><\/td>2022 <\/strong><\/td>2023 <\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
436 MtCO2eq<\/td>423 MtCO2eq<\/td>410 MtCO2eq<\/td>397 MtCO2eq<\/mark><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Et on pourrait donc maintenant consid\u00e9rer une nouvelle distribution des seuils avec :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020 <\/strong><\/td>2021 <\/strong><\/td>2022 <\/strong><\/td>2023 <\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
397 MtCO2eq<\/mark><\/strong><\/td>436 MtCO2eq<\/td>423 MtCO2eq<\/td>410MtCO2eq<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ce qui donne nous permettra de respecter la moyenne de 422 MtCO2eq ave une descente moins forte d\u2019ici 2023. Cependant, le seuil fix\u00e9 pour 2024 par la SNBC \u00e9tant de 384 MtCO2eq., si l’on applique la suggestion ci-dessus, la marche va \u00eatre tr\u00e8s grande entre 2023 et 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Derni\u00e8re information \u00e0 garder \u00e0 l\u2019esprit et pas des moindres, les objectifs fix\u00e9s par la SNBC sont en accord avec une diminution de 40% des \u00e9missions de la France en 2030 par rapport \u00e0 1990. Cependant, l\u2019Union Europ\u00e9enne a vot\u00e9 cette ann\u00e9e, un nouvel objectif de r\u00e9duction de -55% par rapport \u00e0 1990.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si la France veut respecter cet objectif pour 2030, elle doit red\u00e9finir les budgets carbone de la SNBC avec des diminutions annuelles plus cons\u00e9quentes. Un calcul simplifi\u00e9 avec une r\u00e9duction lin\u00e9aire jusqu\u2019en 2030 nous indique que d\u00e8s 2022, la France doit \u00e9mettre moins de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre qu\u2019en 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atteindre cet objectif d\u00e8s l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine n\u2019est pas r\u00e9aliste et semble m\u00eame ardu \u00e0 appliquer dans un avenir proche si l\u2019on se cantonne \u00e0 une approche technologique. C\u2019est une r\u00e9flexion profonde de notre mod\u00e8le socio-\u00e9conomique avec une vision de justice sociale et environnementale que nous devons entamer. La sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 devrait \u00eatre notre objectif principal. La transition \u00e9cologique ne suffira plus. Il nous faut penser redirection \u00e9cologique.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La France a institu\u00e9 en 2015 une Strat\u00e9gie Nationale Bas Carbone (SNBC) qui d\u00e9finit des seuils annuels de volume d\u2019\u00e9missions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":431,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[54,3,4],"tags":[],"author_meta":{"display_name":"Jerome","author_link":"https:\/\/ideehorizon.fr\/index.php\/author\/admin1885\/"},"featured_img":"https:\/\/ideehorizon.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Reductions-Emissions-objectif-Fit-for-55-Europe-300x184.png","yoast_head":"\nLa France doit mettre \u00e0 jour ses objectifs de r\u00e9duction d\u2019\u00e9missions de GES et la pente va \u00eatre raide - Des id\u00e9es pour 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