{"id":371,"date":"2021-07-14T19:58:42","date_gmt":"2021-07-14T17:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ideehorizon.fr\/?p=371"},"modified":"2021-07-20T09:49:42","modified_gmt":"2021-07-20T07:49:42","slug":"ursula-von-der-leyen-presente-un-plan-climat-fonde-sur-un-postulat-errone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ideehorizon.fr\/index.php\/2021\/07\/14\/ursula-von-der-leyen-presente-un-plan-climat-fonde-sur-un-postulat-errone\/","title":{"rendered":"Ursula Von der Leyen pr\u00e9sente un Plan Climat fond\u00e9 sur un postulat erron\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Dans une interview donn\u00e9e d\u00e9but juillet \u00e0 5 journaux europ\u00e9ens, dont Le Monde<\/a>, Ursula Von der Leyen, pr\u00e9sidente de la Commission Europ\u00e9enne r\u00e9pond \u00e0 la premi\u00e8re question avec l\u2019affirmation suivante : \u00ab Le Green Deal, cela veut dire d\u00e9velopper une nouvelle strat\u00e9gie de croissance qui nous emm\u00e8ne vers une \u00e9conomie d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e. C\u2019est possible : la croissance et les \u00e9missions de CO2 ne sont pas obligatoirement li\u00e9es. Depuis 1990, les \u00e9missions ont recul\u00e9 de 25 %, quand le produit int\u00e9rieur brut [PIB] a progress\u00e9 de plus de 60 %. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayant lu un certain nombre d\u2019articles techniques sur le sujet du d\u00e9couplage entre la croissance du PIB et les \u00e9missions de CO2, j\u2019\u00e9tais tr\u00e8s surpris par la d\u00e9claration de Mme Von der Leyen. Les \u00e9tudes tendent \u00e0 montrer qu\u2019il y a une forte relation entre la croissance du PIB et les \u00e9missions de CO2 ainsi qu\u2019entre la croissance du PIB et la consommation de mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res<\/a> (informations compl\u00e9mentaires dans ces 2 m\u00e9ta-\u00e9tudes Vaden et al., 2020<\/a> et Haberl et al., 2020<\/a>). C\u2019est d\u2019ailleurs ce qui porte pr\u00e9judice \u00e0 l\u2019espoir port\u00e9e dans le principe de la croissance verte. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la croissance verte, nous devrions pouvoir produire toujours plus mais nos \u00e9missions de CO2 diminueront gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 toujours plus de technologies vertes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je me suis imm\u00e9diatement plong\u00e9 dans les donn\u00e9es et oh surprise, il semble \u00e9vident que Mme Von der Leyen nous raconte une belle histoire mais qui ne tient pas la route dans le monde r\u00e9el.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En utilisant les donn\u00e9es de la Banque Mondiale, on retrouve bien une croissance de 60% du PIB de l\u2019Union Europ\u00e9enne entre 1990 et 2018 et une diminution proche de -25% pour les \u00e9missions de CO2 par habitant (Mme Von der Leyen ne l\u2019a pas pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 mais ce n\u2019est pas le volume total d\u2019\u00e9missions dont elle parlait mais plut\u00f4t le volume d\u2019\u00e9missions par habitant). Pour obtenir ces r\u00e9sultats elle a simplement compar\u00e9 les chiffres de 2018 par rapport \u00e0 ceux de 1990. Cependant, cette approche ne raconte pas la r\u00e9alit\u00e9. Elle prend les deux extr\u00e9mit\u00e9s d\u2019une courbe et fait comme si c\u2019\u00e9tait une droite, comme s\u2019il n\u2019y avait eu aucune variabilit\u00e9 sur ces 30 ann\u00e9es !<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vous verrez ci-dessous les courbes des 2 param\u00e8tres discut\u00e9s. Vous observerez que nous avons travers\u00e9 trois p\u00e9riodes au cours des 30 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De 1990 \u00e0 2007, le PIB a fortement augment\u00e9 mais le volume des \u00e9missions de CO2 par habitant  a stagn\u00e9. Cette stagnation serait presque une bonne nouvelle si cette p\u00e9riode ne correspondait pas \u00e0 une forte d\u00e9localisation de la production industrielle europ\u00e9enne hors de l\u2019Europe dont vers l\u2019Asie (voir cet article de 1993 dans Les Echos<\/a>). Nous avons donc \u2018export\u00e9\u2019 \u00e0 cette \u00e9poque une part significative de nos \u00e9missions de CO2 mais nous avons alors commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 importer les produits r\u00e9sultants et donc une partie des \u00e9missions associ\u00e9es. Nous ne voyons pas ces \u00e9missions import\u00e9es sur la courbe parce qu\u2019elle ne repr\u00e9sente que les \u00e9missions directes de l\u2019Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans la seconde p\u00e9riode, de 2007 \u00e0 2014, nous observons bien une diminution des \u00e9missions de CO2 par habitant mais le PIB stagne alors d\u00fb aux cons\u00e9quences de la crise financi\u00e8re de 2008. Etant donn\u00e9 qu’il n’y a pas de raison que l’efficacit\u00e9 de nos outils de production se soit soudainement am\u00e9lior\u00e9 parce qu’il y avait une crise, cette baisse des \u00e9missions de CO2 par habitant peut vraisemblablement \u00eatre associ\u00e9e \u00e0 la baisse de la consommation par habitant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans une troisi\u00e8me p\u00e9riode, apr\u00e8s 2014, le PIB est bien en croissance gr\u00e2ce aux milliards inject\u00e9s dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie, surtout dans les march\u00e9s financiers, par la Banque Centrale Europ\u00e9enne. Cependant, on observe que sur cette m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, les \u00e9missions de CO2 stagnent \u00e0 nouveau. C\u2019est \u00e0 nouveau une bonne nouvelle que ces \u00e9missions n\u2019augmentent pas mais il serait malhonn\u00eate de dire qu\u2019elles diminuent. Donc en final, la seule diminution significative des \u00e9missions a \u00e9t\u00e9 observ\u00e9e pendant l\u2019une des pires crises financi\u00e8res de l\u2019\u00e8re industrielle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sans sugg\u00e9rer qu\u2019il y a une corr\u00e9lation directe entre la croissance du PIB et les \u00e9missions de CO2 par habitant, il est au minimum possible de constater que Mme Von der Leyen nous a racont\u00e9 le d\u00e9but et la fin d\u2019une randonn\u00e9e mais elle a oubli\u00e9 de nous parler des cols et vall\u00e9es que nous avons travers\u00e9. La croissance et les \u00e9missions de CO2 semblent bien li\u00e9es !<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De plus comme mentionn\u00e9e plus haut, il ne faut pas oublier les \u00e9missions de CO2 import\u00e9es, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire  les \u00e9missions li\u00e9es \u00e0 tout ce que nous achetons en Europe mais qui est produit hors d’Europe. Une partie de cette production venant d\u2019Asie o\u00f9 l\u2019\u00e9nergie est encore peu d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e, cela impacte fortement notre empreinte carbone dont la composante des \u00e9missions import\u00e9es a augment\u00e9 de 78% entre 1995 et 2018<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tout ceci ne remet pas en cause le fait qu\u2019il y a certaines propositions int\u00e9ressantes dans le Plan Climat pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 cette semaine par la Commission, mais ce plan est beaucoup trop fond\u00e9 sur la croissance verte qui au regard des donn\u00e9es et informations disponibles aujourd\u2019hui est purement une croyance et nullement une th\u00e9orie sur laquelle nous devrions construire la strat\u00e9gie europ\u00e9enne des d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ANNEXE: J’ajoute ici des \u00e9l\u00e9ments suppl\u00e9mentaires suite \u00e0 des commentaires re\u00e7us concernant cet article.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source des donn\u00e9es:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PIB Union Europ\u00e9enne: https:\/\/donnees.banquemondiale.org\/indicateur\/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?locations=EU<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PIB par habitant Union Europ\u00e9enne: https:\/\/donnees.banquemondiale.org\/indicateur\/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=EU<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emissions de CO2 Union Europ\u00e9enne: https:\/\/donnees.banquemondiale.org\/indicateur\/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT?locations=EU<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emissions de CO2 par habitant Union Europ\u00e9enne: https:\/\/donnees.banquemondiale.org\/indicateur\/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=EU<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Population Union Europ\u00e9enne: https:\/\/donnees.banquemondiale.org\/indicateur\/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=EU<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

J’ai choisi d’\u00e9tudier les courbes du PIB total de l’Europe et des \u00e9missions de CO2 par habitant parce que ce sont les 2 param\u00e8tres dont l’\u00e9volution entre 1990 et 2018 correspondaient aux chiffres indiqu\u00e9s par Mme Von der Leyen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vous trouverez ci-dessous un tableau de l’\u00e9volution de plusieurs param\u00e8tres entre 1990 et 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

J’ai \u00e9galement produit diff\u00e9rents graphiques compl\u00e9mentaires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Illustration: Photo by Erik Mclean<\/a> on Unsplash<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dans une interview donn\u00e9e d\u00e9but juillet \u00e0 5 journaux europ\u00e9ens, dont Le Monde, Ursula Von der Leyen, pr\u00e9sidente de la<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":377,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[53,3],"tags":[],"author_meta":{"display_name":"Jerome","author_link":"https:\/\/ideehorizon.fr\/index.php\/author\/admin1885\/"},"featured_img":"https:\/\/ideehorizon.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Cliff-erik-mclean-MAttqoT9atI-unsplash-300x225.jpg","yoast_head":"\nUrsula Von der Leyen pr\u00e9sente un Plan Climat fond\u00e9 sur un postulat erron\u00e9 - Des id\u00e9es pour l'horizon<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Id\u00e9e Horizon 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